SMM Nickel News on May 6:
Macro News:
(1) Data released by the US Department of Commerce on April 30 showed that the US GDP contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis QoQ in Q1 2025, hitting a new low since Q2 2022. The expected figure was 0.3%, and the previous reading was 2.4%.
(2) On May 2, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US non-farm payrolls data for April 2025. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 177,000 in April, higher than the expected 138,000. Meanwhile, the non-farm payrolls for March and February were revised down by 43,000 and 15,000, respectively. The unemployment rate in April remained at 4.2%, in line with expectations. Although the growth in US non-farm payrolls in April slowed MoM, it still exceeded expectations. Following the release of the non-farm data, US stocks rose, US bond yields climbed, and the US dollar index turned from gains to losses.
Spot Market:
Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price stood at 123,800-127,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 125,575 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,100-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel was -100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) continued to rise at the opening, influenced by the strength of LME nickel during the holiday. It once surged to 124,970 yuan/mt during the session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 124,900 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.7% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory stood at 200,418 mt as of May 2, down 1,513 mt from the previous trading day, with inventory remaining at a high level overall. SMM domestic social inventory was approximately 44,100 mt, with a destocking of about 560 mt MoM.
Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the nickel market, with nickel prices fluctuating rangebound. The upside pressure comes from weak downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and macroeconomic uncertainties, while the downside support relies on the cost line. Meanwhile, refined nickel raw materials are in short supply, which will have an impact on supply in the short term.
